Survival Path Seen For Amorphous Thin Film « TechPulse 360
Equipment supplier Oerlikon, on the other hand, is not balking. O’Brien says he expects the global production capacity of amorphous cells to someday rival that of cadmium telluride, presently the most popular thin-film technology. First Solar, the world’s largest solar producer and the only significant maker of cadmium telluride, has about 18 percent of the global solar market.
Amorphous production capacity from manufacturers, such as Sharp and Konica Minolta, will add up, says O’Brien.
Thin-film advocates, such as Oerlikon, argue that a lot of the expected cost reductions have already been wrung from crystalline-cell manufacturing. Price declines will eventually slow.
This will leave an opening for thin film. It is an opening Oerlikon hopes to capitalize on. The company says the cost of thin-film cells made with its equipment will drop to 70 cents a watt by the end of the year, from $1 at the year’s start and a $1.50 in 2008.
This may not enable them to catch those from First Solar, which early this year reached 81 cents. (First Solar is likely to offer a new benchmark when it releases quarterly earnings next week.) But O’Brien sees competition increasing and says more significant cost reductions are expected next year. He declined to offer a target.
He says Oerlikon was able to avoid Applied Materials’ fate by maintaining a technological advantage. First, the company’s micromorph tandem junction technology is generating module efficiencies of 8.5 to 9 percent, up from the 7 to 8 percent of a single junction cell.
